Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score
The Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score shows how far the market value of Bitcoin is from its realized value (the aggregate price at which every coin last moved), measured in standard deviations. It is one of the most followed on-chain indicators to spot cycle tops and bottoms. This chart also shows the STH and LTH MVRV Z-Score, the same indicator for short and long term holders. The plain ratio is in the Bitcoin MVRV Ratio chart.
Market Value Realized Value (MVRV) along with its Z-Score statistical correction, are a powerful tool for investors and traders seeking information on market valuation trends.
MVRV provides a relationship between Bitcoin's current market value and the value it was purchased for (realized value), offering a unique perspective on the cryptocurrency's price dynamics.
The MVRV Z-Score, an extension of the MVRV, introduces a statistical element by measuring deviations from the historical average, penalizing volatility and thus improving its analytical capabilities.
The MVRV indicator consists of three key components:
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MVRV ratio:
This is the main component, which represents the current market value of Bitcoin divided by its purchase value. It reflects the potential profitability of current market participants relative to historical investors.
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Average MVRV (mean):
The average MVRV is the historical average of the MVRV ratio. It provides a basis for evaluating current market conditions, allowing the identification of periods of overvaluation or undervaluation.
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MVRV Std (Standard Deviation):
The standard deviation of the MVRV ratio over time quantifies the degree of variability or volatility in the MVRV values. Higher standard deviations indicate more significant price fluctuations.
How to read the MVRV Z-Score
Adds a layer of statistical analysis to the MVRV index, allowing investors to make more informed decisions based on historical patterns. Here's how to interpret the MVRV Z-Score:
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High values (MVRV Z-Score > 5):
Indicate that the current price of Bitcoin is significantly higher than average purchase prices, even after accounting for volatility corrections. Historically suggests an overbought market condition, indicating that the price of Bitcoin may be approaching a high.
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Low values (MVRV Z-Score < 0):
- Indicates that the current price of Bitcoin is lower than the purchase prices, which could indicate an undervalued market. - Presents a potential buying opportunity, as the market may be primed for a reversion to historical average values.
The MVRV indicator, enriched with Z-Score, provides investors with a comprehensive framework to evaluate market conditions.
By considering current market value relative to historical averages and taking volatility into account, the MVRV Z-Score helps identify potential overbought or oversold states, helping traders make more informed investment decisions in the dynamic world. of cryptocurrencies.
API: MVRV · MVRV Z-Score · LTH MVRV Z-Score · STH MVRV Z-Score
Read the full guide: Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score Explained, with the Z-Score at every cycle top and bottom since 2013 and why the classic top signal stopped working.
Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score FAQ
What is a high MVRV Z-Score?
Readings above 7 marked the 2013 and 2017 tops, but each cycle has peaked lower: the price tops of 2021 and 2025 came with readings of only 3.5 and 2.5. Compare the current value with the range of the current cycle rather than with a fixed level.
What does a negative MVRV Z-Score mean?
The market value is below the realized value: the average holder is at a loss. Readings below 0 have historically marked cycle bottoms.
What is the difference between MVRV and MVRV Z-Score?
MVRV is the plain ratio Market Value / Realized Value. The Z-Score uses the difference between both values divided by the standard deviation of the market value,
which makes extremes comparable across cycles.
Related charts: MVRV Ratio · STH MVRV · LTH MVRV · SOPR · NUPL
Can MVRV be traded? BG Lab backtests Bitcoin on-chain trading rules built on MVRV, MVRV Z-Score and other metrics, validated on data they never saw.